2022年5月美联储FOMC议息会议笔记：尘埃落定

有关本次联储政策决定的在线会议交流，请点击阅读原文获取参会链接与权限。

Mikko的摘要

• 50个基点的加息以及3个月加速至950亿/月规模的缩表尘埃落定。
• 市场一度被鲍威尔对通胀的严厉修辞吓一跳（“attentive”、“much too high”），但随后鲍威尔消除了市场的顾虑，明确表示委员会未考虑75bp幅度的加息。
• 市场借由对75bp加息的否定而舞动起了鸽派大旗，不能再“鹰”构成了风险资产最重要的信心提振来源。
• 资产价格表现上，风险资产在声明公布后小幅下跌，发布会时因鲍叔的通胀措辞而进一步下跌（几乎就是much too high蹦出来的瞬间），随后在鲍叔证伪75bp加息后快速上涨。
• 鲍威尔补充了未来我们观察联储走向的数据基准——职位空缺率以及失业率（贝弗里奇曲线的变化）。本周五的非农数据将是我们观察鲍叔判断的新进数据。
• 对于衰退，鲍威尔表现出了对经济软着陆的极大自信，认为当前看不到经济衰退。
• 目前我们处于一个奇妙的“甜蜜点”，鹰派预期已经随着加息缩表的尘埃落定而消亡，而市场担心的衰退叙事仍未实质性展开。
• 本次议息会议发布会是两年来首次从线上转为线下，鲍叔面对记者时显得游刃有余。消除了在线会议的那种距离感以后，政策沟通上语气平稳，体态自然。

市场表现

股票：先跌后涨

美元、美债：先涨后跌

黄金、比特币：先跌后涨

原油：一直保持强势

变盘点：75bp证伪

声明原文

Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

尽管美国整体经济活动在今年一季度有所下滑，但家庭支出和企业固定投资仍然表现强劲。近几个月来，就业岗位增长扎实，失业率已经大幅下降。通货膨胀水平仍然处于高位，反映了与疫情有关的供需失衡、能源价格上涨以及更为广泛的价格压力。

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵正在造成巨大的人道与经济困难。这对美国经济的影响是非常不确定的。入侵和相关事件正在对通货膨胀造成额外的上升压力，并可能对经济活动产生影响。此外，中国的疫情封控可能会加剧供应链的破坏。委员会高度关注着通胀风险。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.

委员会寻求在长期内实现最大（充分）就业和2%的通胀目标。随着货币政策立场的适当收紧，委员会预计通货膨胀将回到2%的目标，劳动力市场将保持强劲。为了支持这些目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到0.75%-1%（加息50bps），并预计利率目标区间的持续提高将是适当的。此外，委员会决定在6月1日开始减少其持有的国债、机构债务以及MBS，正如与本声明公告同时发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划》中所述。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测收到的新进信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑到广泛的信息，包括对公共卫生、劳动力市场状况、通货膨胀压力和通货膨胀预期以及金融和国际发展的解读。

缩表细节《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划》

根据2022年1月发布的《缩减美联储资产负债表规模的原则》，委员会所有参与者都同意以下大幅削减美联储证券持有量的计划。

委员会打算在一段时间内以可预测的方式减少美联储的证券持有量，主要是通过调整从系统公开市场账户（SOMA）中持有的证券本金偿付后的再投资金额。自6月1日起，从SOMA中持有的证券的本金偿付将在超过每月上限（caps）的前提下进行再投资。

• 对于国债，最初的上限将被设定为每月300亿美元，三个月后将增加到每月600亿美元。在此月度上限下，国债持有量的下降将涵盖票息美债，如果当月到期的票息债低于所设定的月度上限，则涵盖短期美债。
• 对于机构债务和MBS，最初的上限将设定为每月175亿美元，三个月后将增加到每月350亿美元。

随着时间的推移，委员会打算将证券持有量保持在其充裕的准备金制度中高效并有效地执行货币政策所需的数额。

为了确保平稳过渡，委员会打算在准备金水平略高于其判断的与充足准备金相一致的水平时，减缓并停止资产负债表规模的下降。

一旦资产负债表停止缩表，准备金可能会继续下降一段时间，反映出其他美联储负债项目的增长，直到委员会判断其准备金处于充足的水平。

此后，委员会将根据需要来管理证券持有量，以在一段时间内保持充足的准备金。

委员会随时准备好根据经济和金融的发展情况调整其缩减资产负债表规模的方法的任何细节。

发布会要点

#1 有关通胀问题，鲍威尔两次提及“much too high”，声明中新出现的“attentive”亦重申了通胀的严重性，风险资产在鲍威尔蹦出“much too high”以后吓得不轻，应声下行。

The labor market is extremely tight, and inflation is much too high.

Inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing.

劳动力市场极其紧张，通货膨胀率太高了。

通货膨胀率太高了，我们理解它所造成的困难。

#2 有关75bp加息，鲍威尔消除了市场的顾虑，明确表示委员会未考虑75bp幅度的加息，这也是发布会对风险资产最重要的信心提振来源。市场借由75bp的否定而舞动起了鸽派大旗。

There is a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis point increases should be on the table at the next couple of meetings.

75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering.

委员会普遍认为在接下来的几次会议上应该加息50个基点。

75个基点的加息不是委员会正在积极考虑的问题。

#3 有关美国经济的供需问题，鲍威尔的表述一以贯之，明确表态联储无力影响供应端，联储将俄乌事件和中国的风控视为自己无力控制的外部因素，而因此只能着眼于“需求”。

Our tools don't work on supply shocks, our tools work on demand……there is a job to do on demand.

我们的工具无法应对供给冲击，我们的工具是针对经济需求的......，针对需求我们有很多工作要做。

#4 联储是怎样考虑目前的供需平衡问题的？鲍威尔给出了一个明确的指标和理论框架，即职位空缺率及贝弗里奇曲线。鲍威尔认为，未来就业市场的参与率会逐步提升，但是就业人数增长会放缓，进而导致失业率出现小幅向上。新进的劳动力供给以及放缓的经济（雇佣需求）将逐步降低职位空缺率，进而降低薪资和通胀压力，使得经济重新回到一个平衡状态，达到软着陆。

I would say that I expect and committee members generally expect that we will get additional participation, so people will be coming back into the labor force, we have seen that particularly among prime age people, and that will of course tend to hold the unemployment rate up a little bit. I would expect though that job creation will slow, job creation has been at more than a half million per month in recent months, very very strong, particularly for this stage of the economy. And so we think with fiscal policy less supportive, monetary policy less supportive we think job creation will slow as well.

我想说的是，我预期，委员会的成员们也普遍预期，劳动参与率会提升，所以人们将回到劳动力队伍中，我们已经看到，特别是在壮龄人中，这当然会使失业率上升一点。但我预计，就业岗位（非农）的创造将放缓，近几个月来，非农每月超过50万，非常非常强劲，特别是对于经济的这个阶段而言。因此，我们认为随着财政政策的支持力度减弱，货币政策的支持力度减弱，我们认为就业创造也会放缓。

……more people coming back in, we like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance, and that therefore, wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases, but ones that are more consistent with 2 percent inflation.

......很多人回归了就业岗位，我们认为供应和需求将恢复平衡，因此，工资通胀将缓和至仍然相对偏高的增长水平，但与2%的通胀率更为一致。

there is a path by which we would be able to have demand moderate in the labor market, and have therefore vacancies come down without unemployment going up because vacancies are at such a extraordinarily high level, they are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed person, 11 and a half million vacancies, six million unemployed people.

有一条道路，我们将能平抑劳动力市场的需求使之更为温和，并推低职位空缺率而不引发失业率的上升，因为职位空缺处于非常高的水平，每一个失业者对应1.9个职位空缺，有1150万的职位空缺，600万的失业者。

In principle, it seems as though by moderating demand, we could see vacancies come down, and as a result, they could come down fairly significantly, and I think put supply and demand closer together than they are at least, and that would give us a chance to have lower, to get inflation, wages down, and get inflation down, without having to slow the economy and have a recession, and have unemployment rise materially.  There is a path to that.

原则上，似乎通过缓和需求，我们可以看到职位空缺率的下降……大幅下降，我认为倘若我们使供应和需求至少比现在更接近，这将使我们有机会降低……使通货膨胀，工资下降，而不引致经济的放缓，出现衰退，使失业率大幅上升。是有这么一条路可走的。

One is, households and businesses are in strong financial shape, you are looking at excess savings on balance sheets, excess in the sense that they are substantially larger than the prior trend, businesses are in good financial shape.  The labor market is very very strong, and so it doesn't seem to be anywhere close to a downturn.

需要指出的是，家庭和企业的财务状况很好，我们能看到的是私人部门资产负债表上的超额储蓄，超额的意思是它们比以前的趋势要大得多，企业的财务状况很好。劳动力市场非常非常强劲，因此，我们看起来距离经济下行还很远。

#5 对于经济衰退，鲍威尔目前认为概率很低。

And the labor market, if you look at the labor market for people who are out of work and looking, there are lots of job opportunities, for wages are moving up, and at rates that haven't been seen in a long time.  It is a good time to be a worker looking to either change jobs or get a wage increase in your current job.  It's a strong economy.  Nothing about it suggests that it's close to or vulnerable to a recession.

As I said, I think we have a good chance to restore price stability without a recession, without a severe downturn and without materially higher unemployment.

看看劳动力市场，如果你看一下失业率和在找工作的人，有很多工作机会，因为工资正在上升，而且是在很长一段时间内没有看到的上升速度。对于工人而言现在是一个很好的光景，换工作加薪都是如此。经济很强，没有任何迹象表明它接近衰退。

正如我所说的，我认为我们有一个很好的机会来恢复价格稳定，而不招致经济衰退，不会出现严重的经济下行，也不会出现实质性的高失业率。